Navigating the Future
We’re thinking carefully about how society will fundamentally change as AI advances, and what we should do about it today.
Because AI isn’t just a short-term business tool. It’s a tidal wave.
Let’s work together to navigate it.
Is transformational AI really so near?
AI has been science fiction for so long, many are quite reasonably doubtful that it could surpass human intelligence anytime soon. Add in tech CEO hype, and the future can seem an impenetrable haze.
But there is a growing consensus among expert forecasters and scientists that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—a machine that can do most intellectual tasks just as well as a person—is about 5-10 years away.
Click here for a well-done summary of the range of predictions.
There are plenty of skeptics, but a common prediction among many informed experts is a 50% chance of AGI by 2030 or 2031. Some predict sooner. And over the last 15 years the consensus date among experts surveyed has gradually moved earlier.
Stop and think for a moment about what this means. A world full of AI agents as smart as—and, shortly thereafter, smarter than—humans will have seismic effects. Even a 50% chance in five years is staggering.
We tend to think first of our jobs and the economy, but there will also be huge shifts in education, health care, and governance. We may experience significant anxiety and disorientation along the way, and we may arrive in a world where AIs have more power, and less transparency, than we are comfortable with.
These can be disquieting subjects to ponder, but at Keranaut we feel the time to engage is now. Let’s advocate for more guardrails and human-first development of AI, and let’s thoughtfully prepare for a wide range of disruptions to the way we live now. Let’s navigate the future, together.
Our Services
Trainings & Workshops
Immersive group learning experiences that help individuals, teams, and communities prepare for disruption. Sessions are available in person, online, or in hybrid formats and combine practical tools with deep reflection to build capacity for action.
Coaching & Counseling
One-on-one support for those facing personal or professional uncertainty in a rapidly evolving world. Coaching and counseling services help you gain clarity, strengthen emotional resilience, and reconnect with your sense of purpose.
Forecasting
We monitor signals of transformation across fields like artificial intelligence, governance, and labor. Our forecasting helps organizations and communities make sense of emerging trends, and imagine realistic futures to inform decisions.
Our Six Pathways
A note from the founder
by Matthew Pietz
For more than 20 years, I’ve led projects amid the most extreme types of disruption. Coups, tsunamis, and disease threatened the lives of my teams and the assistance we delivered to people in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Asia. I had to become an expert in planning, adaptation and resilience not just to keep my staff and our partners safe, but also to protect my family.
In early 2025, while working on strategy for a joint venture with Carnegie Mellon, the top-rated AI school in the United States, I realized the expert consensus on AI’s progress points to a coming level of disruption we as a planet are simply not prepared for.
Working in AI, international business and politics has taught the members of Keranaut that significant changes that are coming, and that most people feel unready. We want to avoid the temptation to skip over headlines about what AI or its developers are doing next, and help humanity seize control of its future.
We are economists, philosophers, psychologists, and experts in life coaching, organizational adaptation and how to effectively advocate for change.
We are excited about the benefits technology will bring, and dedicated to preventing and mitigating its harms. Let’s work together to help make sure humankind thrives in its next phase of evolution.
